This tool forecasts the relative amounts and numbers of unharvested mines and collectors in Supercell's Clash of Clans. It simulates players habits around the world to provide an overall view of the quality of raids you can expect to find in the game. Use the colored graph above to help coordinate your raids so that you make sure you're taking advantage of the best times to be raiding. For example, if you're planning on boosting your barracks in order to do some farming, make sure you boost when the game is entering a good or great period to be raiding rather than a time when raiding is poor. The times displayed along the top and bottom of the graph are local times for your timezone while the vertical blue line indicates the current time.
To provide a measurable value of the information we're interested in which is how much loot is available in any given base, a unit of measure had to be created which I've called "Loot Minutes." Loot Minutes show how much loot has accumulated within a base over time therefore 1 Loot Minute represents the loot an unattacked base has accumulated in 1 minute. The rules for Loot Minutes work like this... Every base in the entire game produces 1 Loot Minute every minute. Whenever a player opens their game or if they already have the game open, they typically collect their resources, thus consuming any Loot Minutes they had accumulated. Many players (but not all) also typically attack shortly after they sign on which consumes another player's Loot Minutes. The simulation takes into account that many people prefer to next a decent number of times before attacking in order to find a base with large amounts of loot easily available.
The core of the simulation relies upon the accurate representation of all players in all regions of the world. The "Region" table at the bottom provides details on how the Loot Available graph is being compiled. Since all players in the game are free to attack bases all around the world, we essentially are all playing in one large pool of players. This means that players from any region of the world can attack another player from any region of the world and we are not confined to attacking within our own region. The amount of loot available in this pool depends on how many total people are online collecting their resources or attacking versus how many people are offline which lets their base accumulate resources in the collectors and mines. The current local time for each region along with the total players online and offline are shown for the region. The Loot Minutes balance show how much relative loot in that region is available. The "Percent of World" column show how significant each region is affecting the game and that constantly changes throughout the day. The main Loot Available graph and Worldwide Stats at the top of the page are a sum of the Loot Minute balances for all regions in the world.
Player Types and Styles
The simulation schedules used are extensive. First, the players within each region are grouped as to what type of person they are. There are three groups: Children, Young Adults and Adults. Children are based on schedules which involve schooling, education and after-school activities. Young Adults involve general schedules which include a job, performing basic errands and activities later in the day and evening such as partying and other entertainment. Adults include similar schedules to Young Adults except they may not be "partying" as much or as late in the days. Each type of person is further broken into three subgroups which are: Rare, Moderate and Extreme players. Rare players do not play the game frequently and may only sign into their base a few times a day at opportune times such as waking up, lunch, evening, etc. Moderate players play more often than Rare players but not quite as much as Extreme players. Extreme players play very often and usually have the game open a large portion of the day. This simulation takes into account all of these schedules and applies them appropriately to three types of days: Weekdays, Weekends and Holidays. All of the holidays for all regions of the world are also taken into consideration because people usually play more often on holidays.
This forecaster is in no way connected to or directly based on the Clash of Clans servers at Supercell nor am I affiliated in any way with Supercell. Because I don't have access to the actual Supercell gaming information, the next best solution was to meticulously simulate what might be happening in the game environment. In order to try to predict every detail of the loot available in the game as accurately as I could possibly make it, I made every attempt to back up every value, ratio and algorithm in this simulator with actual data or interpolation of data from real studies or companies that specialize in just that. Several critical pieces of data were needed for this simulation and the three most critical were the total number of players playing the game, the market shares each country has on the game and the different players' habits of playing this game. The total number of players have been occassionally released by Supercell but not in predictable, accurate announcements. To get this number, I was able to piece together information in multiple press releases from Supercell to approximate the number of players for the present time. The next piece of data needed was the market share. This provides a percentage for each country that plays the game. I was able to get the market share information from other reliable sources who specifically monitor the market shares and popularities of mobile games and apps. The final piece was the simulation schedules for how players typically play this game. I was able to uncover data from independent studies regarding the age groups and the times of the days they tend to play massivly popular games such as this. All of this data culminates into a thorough simulation schedule for all of the different groups (Children, Young Adults and Adults) and sub-groups (Rare, Moderate, Extreme) of players on the different days of a week and days off. Applying all of this collected information against every region of the world in their respected times along with additional logic from references on how players attack other bases result in an overall accurate prediction of the loot available in Clash of Clans.